[Market Monitor November] Global trade volume down 3.4%, prices down 0.2%

Jurre de Haan
Published on
February 20, 2025

Every month, we share the latest insights into the Frozen Potato Products industry. What’s new this month? Trade data shows that global trade volume was down 3.4% in November 2024 compared to 2023, and prices were down 0.2%.

India Emerging as a Key Exporting Region

India is rapidly transforming from an importer to a major exporter of frozen fries, with strong growth in 2024. Over the first 11 months of 2024, India's frozen potato exports increased by 57.3 kT to 159.1 kT (+56.3%). The primary growth markets are:

  • Asia, which saw exports rise by 29.8 kT to 123.6 kT (+31.8%)
  • The Middle East, which surged by 24.7 kT to 28.3 kT (+686.1%)

To further enhance India's exporting capabilities, two major processing plants are recently announced to come online in Uttar Pradesh in the coming years, marking a shift away from the traditional processing hub in Gujarat. While this places the facilities closer to India’s largest potato harvesting region, it also means they will be further from major export harbors.

Farm Frites – Kribhco Partnership (Uttar Pradesh, India)

Farm Frites has joined forces with Kribhco to set up a high-tech potato processing facility in Uttar Pradesh. This joint venture aims to enhance India’s domestic processing capacity and boost export potential. While the project is underway, specific details about the plant's scale and operations have not yet been disclosed.

Agristo – Masa Global JV (Uttar Pradesh, India)

Agristo, in partnership with Masa Global Food Private Limited (Wave Group, India), is expanding its presence in Uttar Pradesh. Agristo Masa Private Limited is developing a French fries processing facility alongside its existing flakes line, with operations expected to begin by FY2028. This ~€80 million investment will significantly enhance India’s processing and export capacity. The venture leverages Agristo’s global expertise and Wave Group’s agronomy network, ensuring a reliable supply of high-quality potatoes.

With these expansions, India is well-positioned to solidify its role as a key frozen potato exporter, particularly in Asia and the Middle East.

Figure 1: Top importing countries by volume (kT) from Indian exports for the 11-month period ending November 2024, compared to the same period in 2023

US imports surge as suppliers prepare for tariffs

Strong Q4 growth drives annual increase

In Q4 2024, US frozen potato imports rose by 29.6 kT to 388.5 kT, marking an 8.2% increase compared to the same period in 2023. Over the full year, total imports increased by 75.6 kT, reaching 1,527.2 kT (+5.2%). Notably, nearly 40% of this annual growth occurred in the final quarter—likely a result of suppliers anticipating import tariffs under the Trump administration.

Canada Leads the Growth in US Imports

Canadian exports accounted for most of this increase. US imports from Canada grew by 71.1 kT to 1,261 kT (+6.0%) compared to 2023. In Q4 2024, imports from Canada rose by 18.0 kT to 308.8 kT (+6.1%).

Other Key Trends

  • Belgium: Exports to the US grew by 14.2 kT to 171.4 kT over 2024 (+9.0%), with a 6.0 kT increase in Q4 (+13.9% YoY).
  • Netherlands: Exports declined by 14.1 kT to 43.2 kT (-24.6%) in 2024, likely due to production challenges. However, in Q4 2024, Dutch exports slightly exceeded the previous year’s volume, increasing by 0.1 kT to 13.6 kT.

With tariffs on the horizon, it is very likely that suppliers may continue adjusting their export strategies in early 2025, potentially leading to further fluctuations in import volumes.

Figure 2: US imports (kT) – cumulative 1, 3, and 12 months for the period ending in December 2024, compared to the same periods in 2023 and 2022

Market monitoring of frozen potato products

Market monitoring helps food companies to objectively evaluate their current position within the market and the development of that position. It also helps to spot new growth opportunities and whether the market is saturated.

For the A-INSIGHTS Market Monitor, we analyze the global trade in frozen potato products on a monthly basis. Derived from local customs agencies and statistics offices, the data gives us insight into monthly trade volumes and prices for all major importers and exporters. Combined with our sector expertise, we can provide you with an up-to-date view of the developments in the global frozen potato market.

Curious how A-INSIGHTS can help you to incorporate objective insights into your decision-making processes and how our Market Monitor will empower your perspective? Schedule a call.

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