Every month, we share the latest insights into the Frozen Potato Products industry. What’s new this month? Trade data shows that global trade volume was up 3.2% in October 2024 compared to 2023, and prices were down 3.0%.
Global trade volumes increase in line with the anticipated growth in demand
In October 2024, global trade in frozen potato products grew by 3.2% year-over-year, reaching approximately 800 kT compared to 774 kT in October 2023. This volume growth aligns with the expected 3–3.5% increase in global consumption, reflecting steady demand expansion.
Key contributors to the growth in exports include:
- France: +28.6 kT (+81.3%) to 63.8 kT
- Canada: +12.4 kT (+10.6%) to 129.4 kT
- China: +9.6 kT (+91.4%) to 20.1 kT
- India: +8.3 kT (+76.9%) to 19.1 kT
- Argentina: +7.5 kT (+61.0%) to 19.8 kT
- Egypt: +6.8 kT (+70.6%) to 16.4 kT
These figures highlight strong performance across both established markets (e.g., Canada and France) and emerging markets (e.g., China, India, Egypt), signalling shifts in global trade dynamics.
At the same time, trade prices experienced a slight decline. The average price in October 2024 fell to €1.30/kg, a 3% drop from €1.34/kg in October 2023. This marks the first annual price decline since July 2021.
- Mature markets (e.g., Europe, North America, Oceania): Prices remained stable.
- Emerging markets: Prices declined more significantly.
Despite the recent dip, prices remain significantly higher than three years ago, reflecting a 63% increase from €0.80/kg in July 2021 due to inflationary pressures.
Deepdive into French export growth
The growth in French exports has been an ongoing trend. For the 3-month rolling period ending in October 2024, France's export volume reached 178 kT, a significant 55% increase (+63 kT) compared to 115 kT during the same period in 2023. In contrast, Belgium's exports decreased by 6%, dropping from 784 kT in October 2023 to 740 kT in October 2024 (-44 kT).
The increase in French exports is largely attributed to the recent construction of Clarebout’s plant in Dunkirk. Further growth is expected, driven by:
- Clarebout’s Dunkirk Expansion (2024–2025)
- McCain’s Investments in French Plants (2025)
- Agristo’s New Facility in Escaudouvres (2027)
To meet the growing processing capacity, imports of raw potatoes for processing have surged, with the majority sourced from Belgium. It remains unclear whether this trend is due to limited raw potato availability in France or reluctance among French farmers to sell, prompting processors to seek supplies from neighboring countries.
Agristo expands operations transatlantic
Agristo has announced plans to open a greenfield plant in Grand Forks, North Dakota, in collaboration with Walmart.
- The facility is scheduled to open in the summer of 2028, with groundbreaking planned for 2025.
- The plant's initial capacity will be 100 kT, with an ultimate capacity of 200 kT, focusing on coated fries and hash browns/shredded specialties (according to a Dutch source).
- The investment for this plant amounts to $450 million (~€437 million), part of Agristo’s broader €1 billion investment program, which also includes new plants in France and India.
The announcement comes at a politically significant moment, with President Trump back in office and proposing new import tariffs. While these tariffs are not yet implemented, Agristo has clarified that its decision to expand in the U.S. is not directly linked to these developments. The project, which has been in planning for years, aligns with a broader trend of increasing protectionism and supports Agristo’s strategic goal of cost-efficiently serving the entire U.S. market.
Between January and October 2024, Belgium exports to the U.S. increased by 24.4 kT, reaching 140.95 kT (+17.3%). Belgian exports now account for over 11% of total U.S. imports, highlighting Agristo's growing influence in the market.
Highlights of Albert Barlett newly published FY2024 figures (ending May 2024)
Revenue and Growth
Turnover rose 36.4% to £344.6M, driven by new business wins and growth in fresh, chilled, and frozen segments, despite inflation and crop shortages.
Profit and Costs
Profit before tax jumped 63.8% to £13.6M, with efficiency gains offsetting rising costs of £241.7M.
Investments
Acquisitions of Mainscrop Potatoes Holdings and Jersey Royal Company secured the Jersey Royal brand and strengthened supply chain resilience.
Market Conditions
Despite crop shortages and higher costs from adverse weather, investments in automation and efficiency maintained competitiveness.
Market monitoring of frozen potato products
Market monitoring helps food companies to objectively evaluate their current position within the market and the development of that position. It also helps to spot new growth opportunities and whether the market is saturated.
For the A-INSIGHTS Market Monitor, we analyze the global trade in frozen potato products on a monthly basis. Derived from local customs agencies and statistics offices, the data gives us insight into monthly trade volumes and prices for all major importers and exporters. Combined with our sector expertise, we can provide you with an up-to-date view of the developments in the global frozen potato market.
Curious how A-INSIGHTS can help you to incorporate objective insights into your decision-making processes and how our Market Monitor will empower your perspective? Schedule a call.
